Activity-Based Intel

Notes from the watch floor

Blog

  1. How to tell a scheduled drill from a real activity surge

    Why one VHR pass can't separate a routine exercise cycle from a genuine surge, and what a recurring-pattern baseline shows that a single look can't.

  2. What is denial and deception in satellite imagery analysis?

    What denial and deception mean in satellite imagery analysis, and why the real D&D indicators show up across repeat passes, not a single frame.

  3. Change detection vs. anomaly detection for imagery analysts

    Change detection and anomaly detection solve different problems in imagery review. A breakdown of when to use each, and why baselines matter.

  4. How many days of imagery before a site baseline is reliable

    How many days of VHR imagery it takes before a site baseline stops moving and starts catching real deviations.

  5. How to set alert thresholds for site change detection

    A working method for tuning anomaly alerts against a real site baseline, so fewer false positives clog the imagery review queue.

  6. Seasonal change vs. real anomaly: a field guide for analysts

    A field guide for imagery analysts on separating seasonal drift and shadow artifacts from genuine site anomalies, using a multi-pass baseline.

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